Developments that have taken place in Russia since the collapse of communism have made some observers optimistic that Russia is on a path of Westernization that will transform it onto a liberal democracy. Proponents of this view point to ‘lag theory’, the argument that Russia is a normal country in difficult circumstances and progress that has already been made. There are those whoever that argues that authoritarianism is a more likely outcome by emphasizing the importance of Russia’s unique culture and traditions as a strong influence on the country’s political development.

In analyzing the prospects for Russia’s future development the credibility of modernization theory needs to be considered. Proponents of this theory would be optimistic that Russia is likely to develop into a Western-style liberal democracy. Modernization theory argues that all societies begin as traditional ones, with traditional socioeconomic and political structures and practices, and that they all inevitable develop into modern ones, albeit at different rates. Traditional societies are seen to be governed by religious, autocratic and authoritarian principles and modern ones to be governed by principles of secularism, democracy and personal and economic liberty. 

Malia (1999) believes that Russia is continually following the West in socioeconomic and political development in what can be described as ‘lag theory’. Malia argues that the European continent in modern history has been consistently undergoing modernization and that the further east a European state is the longer it takes to adopt developments that take place (1999: 12-13). Prussia for instance was seen to lag behind Britain and France. Russia is believed in this thesis to be part of Europe and to be following this path. He demonstrates how, in the last three hundred years, Russia followed countries of Central Europe, especially Prussia, with a lag of approximately fifty years (1999: 418-19). Catherine the Great created a modern police state in the way that Fredrick II of Prussia had done. Russia’s adoption of monarchial revolution from above in the nineteenth century had previously taken place in Central Europe. Prussia’s Stein-Hardenberg reforms of 1807-12 were followed by Alexander II’s great reforms in the 1860s. The Russian Duma was established in 1905, about 50 years after Prussia established its parliament. Russia is seen to have continued to follow Germany after the interruption of this process after the world wars. It abandoned its totalitarian system of government in 1989-91, approximately half a century after the totalitarian regimes of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy were replaced with democratic governments. Malia’s view is that developments since the time of Peter the Great have demonstrated that Russia was compelled to westernize in order to remain a strong country, and that its continued desire to remain strong will lead to further westernization (1999: 412). He argues that ideological alternatives like communism and nationalism were fatally undermined in the twentieth century and Western-style liberal democracy is therefore the only possible ideological route.