-
this economic boom cannot be sustained, and is a house built on
sand
-
Putin’s success is simply the luck of the geological draw
-
Russia
is the world’s number two oil producer and number one natural
gas producer
-
global prices for oil quintupled between 2002 and 2008
-
the global commodity boom cannot be sustained indefinitely, and
will inevitably be followed by a slump
-
there is little sign that Russia’s political and economic
institutions are prepared for such a development
-
the surge in oil revenue has produced a spike in consumer
spending, largely satisfied by imports, but has not stimulated a
recovery of Russian manufacturing or agriculture
-
the lion’s share of the wealth has been siphoned off by the
oligarchs who are investing most of it abroad
-
the second major beneficiary of the oil boom has been the
Russian state, which has doubled the ranks of bureaucrats and
tripled spending on the military
-
the state has reasserted its control over key industrial
corporations, especially in the oil sector, leading to the
emergence of a new hybrid form of state oligarchic-capitalism
-
the climate remains difficult for small business development,
with small firms accounting for only 17% of employment compared
to 60% in the US
-
despite ambitious plans to diversify the economy and build on
Russia’s technological and human capital, Russia has shown
little sign of being able to compete in cutting-edge industrial
sectors
-
a downturn in oil prices will expose the shaky foundations of
Russia’s development model
-
only a small proportion of the oil receipts are trickling down
to the mainstream of Russian society
-
the ranks of the poor and disenfranchised will continue to grow,
leading to political challenges which Russia’s authoritarian
regime is ill-equipped to handle
-
17 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is still
in a state of transition from the failed model of the past to an
as yet uncertain future
